Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)a newly discovered coronavirus. The virus spreads primarily through contact with an infected person when they cough or sneeze. It also spreads when a person touches a surface or object that has the virus on it, then touches their“MEN” – Mouth, Eyes and Nose. At this time, there are no specific vaccines or treatments for the disease. However, many ongoing clinical trials are evaluating potential treatments.
The fight against the Novel COVID-19 is full of uncertainties. The virus usually spreads exponentially. This happens when the new cases that arise are proportional to the already existing cases.
The objective of this paper is to study the effect of the package of interventions on day-wise cases reported in Kerala. For the time being, the data only on limited variables areavailable.The study has used date wise number of cases of the entire state is being used. The data-source is the Website of the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India.
To collect more disaggregated information, it will be useful if the data is collected in a new standardized form which includes name, age, gender, place of residence (urban/ rural), profession, number of people in the household, socio-economic status, healthcare-seeking behaviour, symptoms, comorbidity (presence of one or more additional conditions co-occurring with a primary condition such as Hypertension, Diabetes, Asthma, ChronicObstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Chronic Renal Failure,treatment of Immunosuppressant drugs, history of alcohol and substance abuse) finding of clinical signs, laboratory tests, confirmed case, and treatment received.
In epidemiological literature, a weekly increment is usually looked at. As the day-to-day number of cases fluctuate, cumulative new cases of last seven days i.e. one week are taken. The number of days is plotted on the X-Axis.
The reported cases as a percentage of total casesareplotted on the Y-Axis. Based on the graph obtained, one can see the change in the increase in the number of reported cases.
Figure- 1 is a plot of the cumulative new cases in the last seven days to the number of days for Kerala. Figure- 2 is a plot for the exponential growth of the number of reported cases for India. Figure- 3 is the change in the steepness (K-value) of the exponential curve for Kerala over time. Figure- 4 plots the exponential trend vis a vis the cubic curve for Kerala.